By Ajay Chhibber, Stanley Fischer
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Extra resources for Economic reform in sub-Saharan Africa
Sample text
Second, depending upon how the shortages are distributed, they may induce a build-up in money balances which give rise to an overhang problem in the transition back to market clearing. Third, the rural economy is liable to implode into subsistence. Farmers reduce incomes because they are unable to make purchases, but in aggregate these income reductions lower the supply of consumer goods in subsequent periods. The first part of the Bevan, Collier and Gunning paper sets out the theory, using a variant of a diagram due to Malinvaud.
The estimated model is then used to simulate the effects of the subsidy program, compare it to a simulated devaluation, and finally, in light of the two simulations, to evaluate the 1986-1989 export subsidy program of the Côte d'lvoire. Lavy, Newman and De Vreyer show that the combination of an export subsidy with an import tariff, which mimics a devaluation, would counter some of the short-run negative effects of an overvalued exchange rate. However, they point out that the scheme introduced in Cote d'lvoire in 1986 did not result in a uniform increase in export prices and has also involved heavy fiscal costs since then.
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