By Stephen Eckett
The Almanac is a different reference paintings offering investors and traders with the knowledge to take on the markets within the 12 months forward. the most part includes fifty two weekly articles concentrating on a number thoughts according to unique seasonality research. those are supplemented with evidence, figures and trivialities distinctive to the Almanac. this is often an incredibly worthy and informative better half to the monetary yr, making the Almanac the single crucial e-book for the intense dealer or investor. The Almanac contains 3 major sections: day by day monetary facts. information and facts. every one web page of this part contains key monetary dates together with: very important fiscal releases, spinoff agreement expiries, alternate vacation trips, and corporate effects anticipated that week. The pages additionally characteristic the result of a distinct examine of the old functionality of the marketplace for every day and week of the yr - the Sinclair Numbers. Seasonality learn - every one web page of the diary is followed through an unique, informative and interesting article. those hide reports of traits and anomalies, seasonality research, momentum results, zone functionality, arbitrage possibilities, FTSE Index stories, in addition to the result of a few more odd and eye-opening learn. statistics - a suite of articles that includes statistical research of united kingdom inventory industry info and extra wide-ranging themes than the Diary. specific to the Almanac, quarter, weekly and day-by-day industry functionality research information is incorporated. Reference - The Reference part comprises historical past information regarding united kingdom and overseas inventory indices. themes lined contain uncomplicated proof concerning the industry, alternate codes, a timetable of the buying and selling day and a glance on the unique components of the feet 30 of 1935 and the FTSE a hundred of 1984.
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Extra resources for The UK Stock Market Almanac 2014: Seasonality Analysis and Studies of Market Anomalies to Give You an Edge in the Year Ahead
Sample text
With this set of returns we can plot an average index for the market in January (we will set the index to start at 100). 43 on the first trading day of January. The following chart plots the average index for the month of January from 1985 to 2013. From the chart we can see that, on average, the market in January rises for the first couple of days (a continuation of the preceding end-of-year market ebullience), but then the market turns and falls for the following three weeks (15 trading days), until it reverses again and then rises strongly in the final week.
Week 11 FTSE 100 reviews – companies joining the index The charts below show the share price of 9 companies that have joined the FTSE 100 in the past year. The time period for each chart is 6 months, starting from 3 months before the company joined the index. Therefore it is possible to see the share price behaviour in the 3 months leading up to joining, and the 3 months after. The dotted line on each chart marks the point at which the company joined the index. Observation It can be seen that, in most cases, the share price rises immediately before the company joins the FTSE 100, while immediately afterwards the price is usually flat or falls back again.
Over the ten years the strategy would have grown £1000 into £13,300, while a £1000 investment in the FTSE All-Share would have become just £1669. Long/short strategy A variation of the above strategy would be to add a short position in the weak sectors in each quarter. For example, in Q1 the strategy would be long the Industrial Engineering sector and short the Pharmaceuticals & Biotech sector. The following chart shows the outperformance of the strong sector over the weak sector for each respective quarter for the period 2003 to 2013.